Global Chemicals, Materials & Energy News（July 28 - August 3, 2025）

Industry Highlights

1. LyondellBasell Misses Q2 Earnings

LyondellBasell reported lower-than-expected Q2 earnings at $0.62/share, missing forecasts of $0.80/share. Margin compression in its North American olefins and polyolefins (O&P) segment, driven by rising feedstock and energy costs, contributed to the underperformance. The company is actively divesting European assets and shifting focus to growth markets in North America and Asia.

2. Decarbonization Remains Elusive in Chemicals Sector

Despite commitments by major players to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, only a handful of chemical companies have detailed implementation plans. The sector still relies heavily on fossil fuels (accounting for 5–6% of global GHG emissions). Progress in e-methanol production and green hydrogen remains slow due to high costs and policy uncertainty.

3. U.S. Executive Order Prioritizes Fossil Fuels for AI Infrastructure

The Biden administration's new executive order aims to expedite AI infrastructure by prioritizing dispatchable energy sources like natural gas, coal, and nuclear. The order excludes wind and solar and relaxes environmental review processes. While it has drawn criticism from environmentalists, the move benefits fossil fuel and chemical sectors tied to AI data center expansion.

Market & Policy Developments

• Supply Chain Realignment

Global chemical producers including BASF, Dow, and Shell are scaling down European operations due to high energy costs and regulation. Investment is shifting toward India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

• China Accelerates Materials Localization

• Semiconductor materials: Domestic substitution rate remains below 20%, but the market exceeds ¥200 billion with policy support accelerating 25%+ annual growth.

• Battery materials: Advancements in solid-state battery commercialization were announced by CATL and Farasis.

  
  

Global Commodities Performance

Material	Price Trend	Drivers & Outlook
Crude Oil	Brent avg. ~$67.84/bbl (2025 forecast)	OPEC+ increasing output; potential downside by Q2 2026
Copper	Plunged 22% in a day (July 31)	Tariff misinterpretation reversed; high volatility expected
Iron Ore	Stable near $95/ton	Supply discipline offsetting weak China demand
Lithium	Depressed; down ~90% from 2022 peak	Oversupply to persist through 2025

Summary Table: Weekly Outlook Snapshot

Segment	Weekly Trend	Key Insights
Chemicals	Mixed to bullish	TDI & solvents up; tight margins persist due to energy prices
Energy	Mild upward pressure	Coal & coke rising; crude oil to stabilize or soften mid-term
Metals	High volatility	Copper plunge underscores tariff-policy sensitivity
Battery Materials	Bearish	Lithium oversupply to extend; recovery contingent on EV demand
Policy	Diverging global strategies	China pushes green industry; U.S. favors fossil-fueled AI infrastructure