Global Chemicals & Materials News (September 8–14, 2025)

US Tariffs Intensify Global Petrochemical Trade Pressure

• Date: September 9, 2025

• Event: U.S. tariffs on certain chemical and petrochemical products are creating challenges for global trade. China is redirecting shipments toward Southeast Asia. Non-asset-based traders (without production facilities) are particularly impacted. Persistent tariffs could shrink global petrochemical trade by approximately 15%.

• Impact Pathway:

  • Trade flows: Shift toward Southeast Asia; reduced reliance on the U.S. market.

  • Margins & operations: Non-asset-based traders face profit pressure; exporters must adjust logistics and supply chains.

• Beneficiary / Pressured Sectors:

  • Beneficiaries: Exporters with integrated production; Southeast Asian markets.

  • Pressured: Non-asset-based traders; exporters dependent on the U.S. market.

• Watchpoints: Tariff policy changes, global trade negotiations, downstream demand fluctuations.

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China Accelerates ASEAN FTA Upgrade

• Date: September 8, 2025

• Event: China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong announced plans to finalize an upgraded ASEAN free trade agreement by the end of 2025 to mitigate U.S. tariff pressure. This move reduces reliance on the U.S. market, particularly for chemical, materials, and polymer exporters sensitive to trade barriers.

• Impact Pathway:

  • Market diversification: Southeast Asia becomes a key export destination.

  • Trade stability: Stabilized export routes for tariff-sensitive sectors.

• Beneficiary / Pressured Sectors:

  • Beneficiaries: Chemical, polymer, and materials exporters; ASEAN partners.

  • Pressured: U.S.-centric export strategies; companies dependent on the U.S. market.

• Watchpoints: FTA upgrade timeline, tariff evolution, export policy adjustments.

  
  

US-China Talks in Madrid on Trade Frictions and TikTok

• Date: September 9, 2025

• Event: U.S. and Chinese officials held talks in Madrid covering trade frictions alongside TikTok political/security concerns. Discussions included export controls, tariffs, and supply chain security. Outcomes could impact regulatory and tariff frameworks affecting chemical and materials exporters.

• Impact Pathway:

  • Policy & compliance: Potential shifts in U.S.–China tariffs and regulations.

  • Supply chain: Exporters may need to adjust sourcing and logistics.

• Beneficiary / Pressured Sectors:

  • Beneficiaries: Companies prepared for regulatory changes; diversified exporters.

  • Pressured: Exporters heavily dependent on U.S.–China trade; policy-sensitive chemical sectors.

• Watchpoints: Negotiation outcomes, export control updates, geopolitical developments.

  
  

China Petrochemical Exports Flow to Southeast Asia; India Demand Stable

• Date: September 9, 2025

• Event: Chinese petrochemical products are increasingly flowing to South and Southeast Asia due to U.S. tariff pressure. India remains one of the few markets with stable demand, capable of absorbing some excess capacity.

• Impact Pathway:

  • Trade flows: Significant redirection of Chinese exports toward ASEAN markets.

  • Market absorption: India supports stable demand; affects regional supply-demand balance.

• Beneficiary / Pressured Sectors:

  • Beneficiaries: Southeast Asian distributors; Indian buyers.

  • Pressured: U.S.-dependent exporters; markets with lower demand.

• Watchpoints: Regional capacity absorption, trade logistics, policy incentives.

  
  

Dow Projects Polyethylene Price Recovery in September

• Date: September 11, 2025

• Event: Dow expects polyethylene (PE) prices to turn positive in September. Key drivers include U.S. cost competitiveness, strong export capacity, and stable inventory levels. Dow’s Path2Zero facility in Alberta, Canada faces a 1–2 year delay due to market conditions.

• Impact Pathway:

  • Pricing & margins: Supports U.S. PE producers; benefits downstream sectors.

  • Project timelines: Sustainability-linked new capacity expansion may be delayed.

• Beneficiary / Pressured Sectors:

  • Beneficiaries: U.S. PE producers, downstream plastics and packaging sectors.

  • Pressured: Delayed new-capacity projects; regions reliant on imported PE.

• Watchpoints: Inventory levels, export demand, tariff and trade uncertainties.