Risk Alert Report ：Impact of the U.S. CO₂ Policy Reversal on Global Enterprises and Investors

1. Background Overview

In March 2025, the U.S. government issued an executive order formally declaring that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is no longer classified as an environmental pollutant. This policy reversal marks a major shift in U.S. climate policy, aimed at relaxing carbon emission regulations on energy, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors to promote economic growth and energy independence.

This move has attracted widespread global attention, significantly impacting the chemical, materials, and energy industries as well as international investors. This report analyzes the issue from four perspectives: macro environment, industry risks, investment impact, and response strategies.

2. Macro Environment Analysis

• Policy Reversal BackgroundThe U.S. economy faces pressures to bring back manufacturing and achieve energy autonomy; the policy adjustment seeks to alleviate corporate burdens and revive traditional energy industries.

• Impact on Global Climate GovernanceAs the world’s largest carbon emitter, the U.S.’s regulatory relaxation undermines international emission reduction efforts and may lead to increased global carbon emissions, jeopardizing climate goals.

• Increased International Trade TensionsSimultaneously, ongoing U.S. tariff actions have complicated the global trade environment and accelerated supply chain restructuring.

3. Industry Risk Analysis

1. Supply Chain and Operational Risks

• Decoupling and regionalization of supply chains have increased raw material procurement and logistics costs.

• Supply chain instability brings production scheduling and delivery risks.

2. Market Access and Compliance Risks

• Import tariffs and non-tariff barriers increase market entry thresholds.

• Differing environmental standards across countries complicate cross-border operations.

3. Technology and Innovation Risks

• Reduced investment in green and low-carbon technology R&D weakens innovation momentum.

• Fragmentation of technical standards hinders international technological cooperation.

4. ESG and Reputation Risks

• Global investors increasingly prioritize environmental performance, raising divestment risks for related companies.

• Growing consumer expectations for environmental responsibility pose brand reputation challenges.

5. Legal and Policy Uncertainty

• Rapid and unpredictable U.S. policy shifts complicate corporate strategic planning.

• Possible retaliatory trade measures and compliance risks from other countries.

4. Investor Impact and Risk Warnings

• Short-term Investment OpportunitiesTraditional energy and carbon-intensive industries may benefit from capital returning and short-term stock gains.

• Long-term RisksHigh-carbon sectors face multiple challenges: restricted international market access, tightening environmental regulations, and insufficient technological innovation.Increasingly stringent ESG investment standards favor green enterprises, raising risks of asset devaluation in carbon-heavy sectors.

• Shifts in Global Capital FlowsInvestors should monitor geopolitical risks and adjust asset allocations to avoid high-risk regions.

5. Corporate and Investor Response Strategies

Corporate Level

• Diversify supply chains to reduce dependence on single countries or suppliers.

• Enhance compliance monitoring and flexibly adjust products and technologies to adapt to changing policies.

• Improve ESG performance by proactively taking environmental responsibility to boost brand image and attract investment.

• Strengthen risk management systems to rapidly respond to policy and market changes.

Investor Level

• Focus on long-term ESG criteria, prioritizing green and sustainable sectors.

• Assess policy risks and adjust investment portfolios to align with global trade and environmental regulations.

• Follow industry innovation trends to capture opportunities in green technology and alternative materials.

• Mitigate geopolitical risks by investing in stable markets with transparent regulations.

6. Conclusion

The U.S. reversal of CO₂ pollutant status is a profoundly impactful policy shift that may stimulate the return of traditional industries and capital in the short term but also exacerbates global supply chain fragmentation, technical standard divergence, and climate governance challenges in the long run. Global enterprises and investors must prepare proactively by adjusting strategies, strengthening risk management, and embracing green transformation to maintain competitive advantage in an increasingly complex international environment.